Incorrect generalization of rare examples by induction

October 11, 2022

The functional method is a method of theorizing that we all understand well.
However, it cannot be generalized well unless done rigorously.

In middle school and high school mathematics, we make a few tedious assumptions and then theorize step by step.

This method can of course be used in general life, but if it is done in a messy way, it can be understood incorrectly.
Let's look at some common mistakes with examples of strange function methods.

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Example of wrong induction of the experience of being continuously interrupted in the queue at Yokohama station.

Let me give you this example.

I went to Yokohama station.
At the "eat" point, we lined up to buy the famous shumai bento.

Then one middle-aged man quickly interrupted and ordered.
The clerk didn't want to make any trouble, so he went straight to the reception desk.

I went past there to the ticket gate because I wanted to ask a few questions.
There was a line of people waiting to ask the station staff at the ticket gate.
And I'll be in line too.

Then two high school girls interrupted, and the station attendant responded to them.
Within about 10 minutes of our short stay, we were passed in line twice in a row.

I was definitely passed in line.
And that's twice in a short period of time.

From this, we can inductively think: "Yokohama interrupts the column.
Is this correct?

It can't be right.
If you claim this conclusion as a general event with a correct grasp of the phenomenon, I can already hear you saying "no".

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Consecutive occurrences and illusion

This is a good example of the illusion of continuous occurrence.
It happened one after the other, so it would happen again.
But it is not the right decision.

Changing the story to the roll of the dice seems funny.
The eye of 6 came up twice in a row, so the next one would also be a 6.

If the possibility of cheating is suspected in the drama, it may be possible.
But usually the probability is 1/6, so that's about 161 TP3T.

Is there a law of about two occurrences in a row to begin with?

Invisible Variables

It could also be due to invisible variables.
For example, I was not very much in line with the people around me, and as a result, I pulled out.

In this case, it was the "impression I give to others" that I did not show in the example that caused me to be continuously interrupted in line.

One could hypothesize a different cause: "The area was Yokohama, so they were interrupted in the queue."

The cause of the problem this time was just a coincidence, but it is hard to know truly what the cause is when considering the cause in business.

Don't generalize about rare examples.

While "not knowing" is a problem, "seeing the wrong reason as the cause" is also often harmful.
Because it would direct the action in a different direction.

Many of you may have had the impression that I was trying to generalize the "experience of being cut off in line twice in a row in Yokohama" that I mentioned, which may have seemed unreasonable.

But when we are trying to find the cause of a business, we come across a surprising number of examples where this kind of expansive induction is used.
Be careful not to generalize malleable examples and avoid strange understandings, while also valuing the sensory aspects.

[Editor's Postscript
Real Estate Transactions.
There are various overhead costs.
There is nothing I wouldn't recommend, but I want to make sure I understand that as well.

[Exercise record].
Stretching ○ Supplement ○ Gym

Child-rearing diary (5yrs old, 1yr old)
Today we have curry for the kids and for the adults.
Sooner or later, I will be able to make it in one pot.

When my oldest son comes home, I will think of a dish to share with him.